Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm.

: Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) represent a modeling framework to flexibly describe associations showing potentially non-linear and delayed effects in time series data. This methodology rests on the definition of a crossbasis, a bi-dimensional functional space expressed by the combination of two sets of basis functions, which specify the relationships in the dimensions of predictor and lags, respectively. This framework is implemented in the R package dlnm, which provides functions to perform the broad range of models within the DLNM family and then to help interpret the results, with an emphasis on graphical representation. This paper offers an overview of the capabilities of the package, describing the conceptual and practical steps to specify and interpret DLNMs with an example of application to real data.<br/

Unidentifed gamma-ray sources: hunting gamma-ray blazars

One of the main scientific objectives of the ongoing Fermi mission is unveiling the nature of the unidentified gamma-ray sources (UGSs). Despite the large improvements of Fermi in the localization of gamma-ray sources with respect to the past gamma-ray missions, about one third of the Fermi-detected objects are still not associated to low energy counterparts. Recently, using the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) survey, we discovered that blazars, the rarest class of Active Galactic Nuclei and the largest population of gamma-ray sources, can be recognized and separated from other extragalactic sources on the basis of their infrared (IR) colors. Based on this result, we designed an association method for the gamma-ray sources to reognize if there is a blazar candidate within the positional uncertainty region of a generic gamma-ray source. With this new IR diagnostic tool, we searched for gamma-ray blazar candidates associated to the UGS sample of the second Fermi gamma-ray catalog (2FGL). We found that our method associates at least one gamma-ray blazar candidate as a counterpart each of 156 out of 313 UGSs analyzed. These new low-energy candidates have the same IR properties as the blazars associated to gamma-ray sources in the 2FGL catalog.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication on the Astrophysical Journa

Evaluating the Impact of Florida's "Stand Your Ground" Self-defense Law on Homicide and Suicide by Firearm: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

: In 2005, Florida amended its self-defense laws to provide legal immunity to individuals using lethal force in self-defense. The enactment of &quot;stand your ground&quot; laws in the United States has been controversial and their effect on rates of homicide and homicide by firearm is uncertain. : To estimate the impact of Florida's stand your ground law on rates of homicide and homicide by firearm. : Using an interrupted time series design, we analyzed monthly rates of homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida between 1999 and 2014. Data were collected from the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) web portal at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used seasonally adjusted segmented Poisson regression models to assess whether the onset of the law was associated with changes in the underlying trends for homicide and homicide by firearm in Florida. We also assessed the association using comparison states without stand your ground laws (New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia) and control outcomes (all suicides and suicides by firearm in Florida). October 1, 2005, the effective date of the law, was used to define homicides before and after the change. : Monthly rates of homicide, firearm-related homicide, suicide, and suicide by firearm in Florida and the 4 comparison states. : Prior to the stand your ground law, the mean monthly homicide rate in Florida was 0.49 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 81.93), and the rate of homicide by firearm was 0.29 deaths per 100 000 (mean monthly count, 49.06). Both rates had an underlying trend of 0.1% decrease per month. After accounting for underlying trends, these results estimate that after the law took effect there was an abrupt and sustained increase in the monthly homicide rate of 24.4% (relative risk [RR], 1.24; 95%CI, 1.16-1.33) and in the rate of homicide by firearm of 31.6% (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.21-1.44). No evidence of change was found in the analyses of comparison states for either homicide (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.98-1.13) or homicide by firearm (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.17). Furthermore, no changes were observed in control outcomes such as suicide (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.94-1.05) and suicide by firearm (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.91-1.06) in Florida between 2005 and 2014. : The implementation of Florida's stand your ground self-defense law was associated with a significant increase in homicides and homicides by firearm but no change in rates of suicide or suicide by firearm.<br/

Cannabis through the looking glass: chemo- and enantio-selective separation of phytocannabinoids by enantioselective ultra high performance supercritical fluid chromatography

By using the Inverted Chirality Columns Approach (ICCA) we have developed an enantioselective UHPSFC method to determine the enantiomeric excess (ee) of (-)-Δ(9)-THC in medicinal marijuana (Bedrocan®). The ee was high (99.73%), but the concentration of the (+)-enantiomer (0.135%) was not negligible, and it is worth a systematic evaluation of bioactivity

A penalized framework for distributed lag non-linear models.

: Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are a modelling tool for describing potentially non-linear and delayed dependencies. Here, we illustrate an extension of the DLNM framework through the use of penalized splines within generalized additive models (GAM). This extension offers built-in model selection procedures and the possibility of accommodating assumptions on the shape of the lag structure through specific penalties. In addition, this framework includes, as special cases, simpler models previously proposed for linear relationships (DLMs). Alternative versions of penalized DLNMs are compared with each other and with the standard unpenalized version in a simulation study. Results show that this penalized extension to the DLNM class provides greater flexibility and improved inferential properties. The framework exploits recent theoretical developments of GAMs and is implemented using efficient routines within freely available software. Real-data applications are illustrated through two reproducible examples in time series and survival analysis.<br/

Annual Crop Yield Variation, Child Survival and Nutrition among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso.

Whether year to year variation in crop yields affects the nutrition, health, and survival of subsistence farming populations is relevant to the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. However, the empirical evidence is limited. We examined the association of child survival with inter-annual variation in food crop yield and middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in a subsistence farming population of rural Burkina Faso. The study was of 44,616 children &lt; 5 years of age included in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 1992-2012, whose survival was analysed in relation to the food crop yield in the year of birth (which ranged from 65% to 120% of the period average) and, for a subset of 16,698 children, to MUAC, using shared frailty Cox proportional hazards models. Survival was appreciably worse in children born in years with low yield (fully adjusted hazard ratio of 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.20) for a 90th to 10th centile decrease in annual crop yield) and in children with small MUAC (hazard ratio 2.72 (95% confidence interval: 2.15, 3.44) for a 90th to 10th centile decrease in MUAC). These results suggest an adverse impact of variations in crop yields which could increase under climate change

High-redshift blazars through nustar eyes

The most powerful sources among the blazar family are MeV blazars. Often detected at $z>2$, they usually display high X- and \gm-ray luminosities, larger-than-average jet powers and black hole masses $\gtrsim 10^9 M_{\odot}$. In the present work we perform a multiwavelength study of three high redshift blazars: 3FGL J0325.5+2223 ($z=2.06$), 3FGL J0449.0+1121 ($z= 2.15$), and 3FGL J0453.2$-$2808 ($z=2.56$), analysing quasi simultaneous data from GROND, \swift-UVOT and XRT, \nustar, and \fermi-LAT. Our main focus is on the hard X-ray band recently unveiled by \nustar~(3$-$79 keV) where these objects show a hard spectrum which enables us to constrain the inverse Compton peak and the jet power. We found that all three targets resemble the most powerful blazars, with the synchrotron peak located in the sub-millimeter range and the inverse Compton peak in the MeV range, and therefore belong to the MeV blazar class. Using a simple one zone leptonic emission model to reproduce the spectral energy distributions, we conclude that a simple combination of synchrotron and accretion disk emission reproduces the infrared-optical spectra while the X-ray to \gm-ray part is well reproduced by the inverse Compton scattering of low energy photons supplied by the broad line region. The black hole masses for each of the three sources are calculated to be $\gtrsim 4 \times 10^{8} M_{\odot}$. The three studied sources have jet power at the level of, or beyond, the accretion luminosity.Comment: 4 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Ap